ALUMINUM USA: Executive Insight Series

Aluminum’s growth opportunities in a carbon-constrained world

ALUMINUM USA produced by RX, in association with The Aluminum Association and CRU International

This unique collaboration between ALUMINUM USA, the Aluminum Association and CRU will combine the benefits of RX’s leading aluminum exhibition prowess with the US and Canadian Associations’ executive network and CRU’s 50+ years of market analysis experience.

For the first time, senior decision-makers from the commercial and technical space will have an opportunity to meet in one convenient locale to optimize time and budget to:

  • See cutting edge world class technical developments from leading exhibitors
  • Rekindle commercial and technical networking contacts absent during the Covid Pandemic
  • Gain unique insights from the objective market perspectives of leading thought leaders in the commercial sector

The global economy and the aluminum sector are experiencing unprecedented changes: Aluminum is set to be a key beneficiary of these changes. They will permeate all parts of the aluminum industry influencing demand, trade policy, production, product development, raw materials and energy markets. The Aluminum USA: Executive Insight Series will be your guide and become a “can’t miss” part of your longer-term strategic planning time and budget allocation.

  • China’s rapidly evolving role as a global producer and leading exporter of aluminum products. Primary production limits, increased emphasis on recycling, de-carbonization targets, and trade are causing China to become more introspective. How can attendees’ profit from this?
  • Aluminum is moving from an era of surplus to deficit. Scarcity is back in the vocabulary. How will attendees adapt to this much different supply-demand equation?
  • Trade actions have radically re-ordered import/export flow. Will Section 232 go away? How will the US-China develop a permanent solution to their differences, and will multi-lateral trade find solutions to deep divisions amongst traditional trade partners?
  • Supply chains are increasingly global in nature yet face huge stresses. Trade actions are raising costs or shutting down access to supply; truck and seaborne freight availability is scarce, and costs are skyrocketing. What solutions does the industry have in mind to compensate?
  • De-carbonization is fast approaching. Emission trading systems are rapidly propagating around the world, led by actions in the EU with its possible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. ESG is now a core part of corporate strategy. How will the aluminum sector leverage its strengths in sustainable production and recycling to gain even more market share?

Topics and Sessions:

1. Global Perspectives: Central Theme: “Is Global Cooperation in Trade still possible?”

  • How will trade differences be resolved to promote multi-lateral trade in aluminum
  • The OECD continues to point to industrial subsidies within many countries, how will the playing field be leveled?
  • How will de-carbonization be integrated into trade agreements

2. Macro-Economy: Central Theme: “Coping with Inflation after a long absence “

  • It’s been 40 years since inflation was widespread. How does industry adapt and cope with it? Is inflation good or bad for aluminum and commodities in general?

3. Primary Aluminum Supply-Demand: Central Theme: “Is the Era of China Systemic Surplus Over?”

  • Is the era of Chinese export surplus over?
  • China primary production cap and growing rotation of investment from primary to recycling
  • China’s introspective view on future growth driven by domestic consumption & not exports
  • Scarcity of supply in the World outside China, the surplus of the GFC is gone
  • Outlook for LME and SHFE futures prices as an incentive price for restarts and greenfield investment
  • Outlook for physical premiums given influences of Section 232 and carbon taxation

4. Recycled Aluminum: Central Theme: “Rising importance in a carbon-constrained world”

  • Challenges facing secondary processors with demise of ICE
  • Absorbing the growing supply of ABS and Class scraps
  • Potential for UBC deposit and game-changing effect
  • Substitution effect of recycling for primary in de-carbonization

5. Supply Chain: Central Theme: “Global supply chains under stress, temporary or paradigm shift?”

  • How long with the global container dislocation effect continue?
  • Are domestic truck costs permanently shifting higher due to driver shortages and will autonomous trucks be the answer?
  • Are U.S. ports capable of coping with the offshore dependency of our supply chains
  • Will Mexico be the first beneficiary of “on-shoring “to North America versus domestic investment

6. De-carbonization: Central Themes” Changing material choices in a carbon-constrained world “

  • How carbon costs radically change the cost curve
  • Could shift trade flow into EU and other markets with carbon border adjustment mechanisms; how the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism works, and could it spread to other jurisdictions?
  • Does this kill China’s ability to compete into those markets?
  • Debate over low carbon versus high premium pricing
  • How financing will drive decarbonization
  • Recycled content’s role in reducing the carbon intensity of semi-fabricated and cast products

7. Demand Growth Opportunities: Central Theme: “Multiple Paths to high growth in this era of fast changing markets”

  • Alternative energy- Outlook for growth in solar and wind as a drive of aluminum
  • Automotive demand- transition from ICE to EV
  •  Can demand- is the surge in aluminum can demand sustainable
  •  Construction- when does sustainability permeate basic construction demand choice?
  • Competing Material threats-is there a real concern over material substitution?